Polish MPC sees rates stable in following quarters-minutes

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The six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), headed by RBI Governor Urjit Patel, had opted for status quo on the benchmark policy rate (repo rate) on 6 April.

A key policymaker at the Bank of England has hinted at his support for a rise in interest rates because he anticipates that economic growth and inflation are set to exceed expectations.

In the first bi-monthly monetary policy review of 2017-18, the RBI made a decision to keep the policy interest rate unchanged at 6.25%.

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While Mr Saunders, who was previously a United Kingdom economist at Citigroup, said that he was not prejudging how he might vote in future on monetary policy the speech is likely to identify him as one of the more hawkish members of the MPC.

Saunders, speaking at a meeting of the Federation of Small Businesses in London, had said earlier that growth and inflation were likely to be higher than the BoE forecast, and that policy would remain stimulative even if the BoE raised rates slightly. The committee which moved its stance to neutral from accommodative in the previous policy warned of impending pressure on inflation from multiple factor including likely lower farm output if monsoon rain fails.

"We make our decisions from meeting to meeting, and will fulfill our remit during the Brexit process and after it", Saunders said. "The worst case is that the one rate cut that we were expecting might not happen".

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The weighted average lending rate of banks has come down only by 0.85-90 per cent as against a 1.75 per cent cut in policy rates since January 2015.

The 10-year bond yield increased to its seven months high by 8 basis points to 6.96% on Friday. Further, the implementation of the HRA allowances recommended as part of the 7th Pay Commission and the GST are risks, which could alter the inflation outturn in 2017-18, Patel said.

Saunders said: "It is also possible that, unconnected to the Brexit vote, the United Kingdom expansion has developed greater momentum and resilience, reflecting low unemployment, several years of solid real income growth, and a reduced emphasis on balance sheet fix following the 2008-09 recession".

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Moreover, there were research reports which has mentioned that the macro-data released by Central Statistics Office (CSO) on Indian economy has not covered the "real" impact of demonetisation.

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