What an expected interest rate hike will mean for local consumers


"The accumulation of evidence and the growth in our confidence that the economy is on a solid trajectory should be good news for everyone".

"If the BoC raises interest rates, Governor Poloz could downplay the move as a removal of the insurance cuts made in 2015". Frothy pockets in the Toronto and Vancouver real-estate markets pose a top vulnerability to financial stability, the Bank of Canada and others have warned.

The central bank hasn't changed its benchmark rate of 0.5 per cent since it first cut rates in July 2015 to address the decline in Canada's economy. Central bank rhetoric in the developed economies has now taken hawkish tone as the European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of England (BoE) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) have seen improvement in economic growth.

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Consumer protection group Option Consommateurs said the rate hike is a warning sign for Canadians who have taken advantage of easy credit.

Five-year variable-rate mortgages are largely unchanged so far and are still available at rates as low as prime minus 0.80% (1.90% today) for high-ratio buyers, and at rates as low as prime minus 0.70% (2.00% today) for low-ratio buyers, again depending on the size of their down payment and the purchase price of the property.

At the time of writing this article, the Pound to Canadian Dollar exchange rate trended in the region of 1.6515.

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The move, considered unlikely as recently as six weeks ago, would make Canada the first major central bank to follow the USA central bank in removing the monetary stimulus poured into the global economy in the wake of the 2008 credit crisis. Released last Friday, the June employment report shows that the number of payrolls increased +45K, lowering the unemployment rate to 6.5%.

Persistent low inflation is a pervasive problem in advanced economies. Stocks and government bonds rallied on the news. He feels now that inflation is starting to pick up and so these very low, very accommodating, interest rates are no longer necessary. The low-rate environment in Canada was utilized to offset the decreasing price of oil, helping decrease the value of the CAD and encouraging foreign investment. The Bank's indicator of future sales gauge hasn't been at this level since 2012. They believed these factors would only temporarily affect the general price levels.

Following Wednesday's hike many economists expect another rate hike will happen later this year, but only in September or October. Closing the gap tends to put upward pressure on prices and wages. Meanwhile, fixed mortgage rates have risen by about.20% in the lead up to this week's meeting, and the market's reaction to the BoC statement that accompanies its policy-rate increase will determine which direction they go from here.

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CIBC Research: CIBC shares the market expectations that the BoC will hike interest rates this week. Carney raised rates three times to 1%.