International Monetary Fund says United Kingdom is exception to global growth


The IMF upgraded its global economic growth forecast for 2017 by 0.1 percentage points to 3.6 percent, and to 3.7 percent for 2018, from its April and July outlook, driven by a pickup in trade, investment, and consumer confidence.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday pared its growth forecast for India by half a percentage point to 6.7% for 2017, blaming the lingering disruptions caused by demonetisation of high value currencies previous year and the roll out of the Goods and Services Tax (GST).

The growth forecast for this year was raised to 3.6% from 3.5% and the outlook for next year was lifted to 3.7% from 3.6%.

"Notably, we expect sub-Saharan Africa, where growth in per capita incomes has on average stalled for the past two years, to improve overall in 2018", he said. The upward revisions in its growth forecasts including for the euro area, Japan, China, emerging Europe, and Russian Federation more than offset downward revisions for the United States, the United Kingdom, and India.

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The IMF's previous projections for 2017 made in April and July had put India's economic growth rate at 7.2 percent.

"Over the medium term, however, growth is expected to remain about 1.5 percent, constrained by moderate oil prices, adverse demographics, and other structural impediments", it said. "A closer look suggests that the global recovery may not be sustainable - not all countries are participating, inflation often remains below target with weak wage growth, and the medium-term outlook still disappoints in many parts of the world".

The report also projects strengthening economic growth across most of Asia, raising its forecast for Japan but reducing it for India. It expects growth to slow from 1.8% in 2016 to 1.7% this year and to 1.5% in 2018.

The fund urged authorities to intensify efforts to rein in the expansion of credit.

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On the plus side for Inida, the International Monetary Fund raised last year's growth rate by 0.3 percent to 7.1 percent from the 6.8 percent it had projected in April citing "strong government spending and data revisions".

Russia's central bank has tried to reinvigorate the economy by gradually reducing the key interest rate, with its latest cut in September - the fourth this year - putting it at 8.5 percent.

There's also a hint of concern about the administration of President Trump when the report says that "uncertainty about policy is more of a concern than usual reflecting, for example, difficult-to-predict United States regulatory and fiscal policies".

The IMF projection is more optimistic than Korea's own.

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"Growth in most of the other advanced economies, with the notable exception of the United Kingdom, picked up in the first half of 2017 from its pace in the second half of 2016, with both domestic and external demand contributing", the International Monetary Fund said.