Crashing out the European Union 'will cost London 90000 jobs', warns study


The scenarios range from a relatively seamless exit to leaving on World Trade Organization () terms without a transition deal, described by the study as a "hard Brexit".

The research, carried out by Cambridge Econometrics, found United Kingdom economic output could be 3% lower by 2030 if Britain leaves the single market and customs union, while output in London could be 2% lower, indicating a significant blow to the economy.

"If the Government continue to mishandle the negotiations we could be heading for a lost decade of lower growth and lower employment", Khan said.

"The analysis concludes that the harder the Brexit we end up with, the bigger the potential impact on jobs, growth and living standards".

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The findings are in an analysis of the potential impact of five different Brexit scenarios on London and the whole of Britain, commissioned by the mayor a year ago from leading economic analysts Cambridge Econometrics. The paper is a response to the government's failure to produce its assessment on how Brexit would impact the economy.

"Their complete lack of preparation is irresponsible leading to fears that they are putting party politics ahead of the national interest".

Khan said he had commissioned and published the "Preparing for Brexit" report "because the British people and our businesses have a right to know the likely impact on their lives and personal finances".

Last month the Government was obliged to release some Brexit sectoral analyses after losing a binding vote in the Commons.

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Mr Khan continued: "There is no sector not negatively impacted".

Sadiq Khan said that while he was "heartbroken" about Brexit he had come to accept the results of the 2016 EU Referendum but his use of the word "probably" is likely to rile numerous 17.4million Brits who voted for freedom from the Brussels bloc.

The calculations are in line with assessments done before the referendum by the International Monetary Fund and the National institute of Economic and Social Research.

A Brexit in March 2019 without a deal or a transition period roadmap, the worst of the five possibilities outlined in the report, would mean 482,000 fewer jobs nationwide, along with the loss of £46.8 billion ($63 billion) in investments by 2030.

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Among the sectors covered in the study by the Cambridge Econometrics research cabinet, financial services would be hardest hit by a no-deal pullout, standing to lose about 119,000 jobs, followed by Science and Technology (-92,000) and Construction (-43,000). Across the creative and cultural industries as a whole, there would be 27,000 fewer jobs.