Is History Repeating Itself In Oil Markets?


The IEA said the surge, which is powered by shale, is "reminiscent" of 2014, when booming production in the us prompted OPEC to flood the global market with oil in an attempt to protect its market share. The U.S. Energy Information Administration is saying U.S. crude oil output could reach 11 million bpd by the end of this year.

That's because USA shale oil extraction requires higher selling prices to break even than production in states like Saudi Arabia.

"As President of the OPEC Conference, you have shown exemplary vision and leadership through 2017 with your stewardship of the implementation of the "historical" agreement to seek oil market stability among some 20 OPEC and non-OPEC countries to the benefit of producing and consuming nations alike", said Malcolm Brinded CBE, President, Energy Institute. Last year, more than 80 percent of the production growth from the United States came from shale oil deposits in the Lower 48. In the three-month period ending in November, the US added "a colossal 846 kb/d", the IEA noted, with even steeper gains expected this year.

USA production rose to 10.27 million bpd last week, the EIA said, which, if confirmed by monthly data, would represent an all-time US record.

The IEA was once again to raise its forecast for oil demand growth in 2018 to 1.4 million barrels per day, from a previous projection of 1.3 million barrels per day.

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The Paris-based IEA raised its forecast for oil demand growth in 2018 to 1.4 million barrels per day, from a previous projection of 1.3 million bpd, after the International Monetary Fund upped its estimate of global economic growth for this year and next.

Supply-side pressures have undermined some of the effort, particularly the gains in US oil production, a situation compounded by higher export levels.

Nigeria is working hard to keep its crude oil output within the OPEC quota, and would therefore need to focus on getting more revenue from existing projects by reviewing the production sharing contract (PSC) terms, he said.

West Texas Intermediate crude for March delivery traded at $58.90 after settling at $59.19 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

OPEC and its partners, including Russian Federation, have curbed supply since January 2017 in a bid to drain global inventories in an agreement that continues through the end of the year.

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Brent Crude, the worldwide benchmark, was trading up 1.37% at $63.62.

Speaking in an interview in Dubai on February 12, AI Mazrouei disclosed that the oil market should re-balance this year, given robust demand and producers' compliance with their pledges to curtail supply.

With markets seemingly returning to calmer waters, oil traders said attention was turning to inventory levels to gauge crude supply levels. Recently we read of a shipment of condensate from the U.S. to the UAE.

The crude oil market is clearly moving away from the traditional Middle East centre ground, as the USA continues to increase its production. "If so, most producers will be happy, but if not, history might be repeating itself".

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