OECD estimates global GDP growth rose 3.7 pct in 2017


The boost to demand provided by Trump's tax cuts has meant that the OECD has revised up its forecast for U.S. growth by 0.4 points to 2.9% in 2018 and by 0.7 points to 2.8% in 2019.

The higher forecast was in part due to expectations that US tax cuts would boost economic growth there, it said.

In November 2017, the OECD predicted an increase of 3.6 percent for 2017 and 2019, and a rise of 3.7 percent for 2018. That's up from 3.7 per cent and 3.6 per cent respectively compared with its November projections.

"Growth in the U.S., Germany, France, Mexico, Turkey and South Africa is projected to be significantly more robust than previously anticipated, with smaller upward revisions in most other G20 economies", it added.

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"Trade protectionism remains a key risk that would negatively affect confidence, investment and jobs", it said on Tuesday.

With tax cuts boosting the economy this and next year, the OECD forecast the upper bound of the target federal funds rate could reach 3.25% by the end of 2019, from 1.5% now.

"Countries should rely on collective solutions like the Global Forum on Steel Excess Capacity to address specific issues", he said.

A full-blown trade war could cost the global economy US$470 billion by 2020, according to analysis by Bloomberg Economics.

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On its latest forecasts, the OECD said "stronger investment, the rebound in global trade and higher employment are helping to make the recovery increasingly broad-based".

The OECD forecast the US economy would grow 2.9% this year and 2.8% in 2019, with tax cuts adding 0.5-0.75 percentage points to the outlook in both years. The better global growth will be accompanied by a "modest" pickup in inflation, it said.

USA tax cuts, announced by Trump since the OECD's November forecasts, were one reason why the growth outlook was stronger than it was four months ago, the thinktank said.

It highlighted that many countries' rising risk-taking and high debt levels raised financial vulnerabilities.

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The OECD said high inflation would eat into United Kingdom household income while business investment would slow in the face of uncertainty over Britain's future relationship with the EU. It also sees "tensions" as monetary policy normalizes, and said central banks need to communicate clearly to avoid market disruptions.