Three Takeaways From the June Jobs Report: Mohamed A. El-Erian

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Job creation in the world's largest economy continued its brisk pace in June but the unemployment rate jumped as more people joined the hunt for employment, according to a government report Friday.

The U.S. economy added 213,000 new jobs.

The June jobs report is out and it's a beat.

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The June jobs data showed an economy that may be on the cusp of producing stronger pay growth, something that could be disrupted if additional tariffs are imposed. The unemployment rate nevertheless saw a small uptick.

"Overall the report is good news insofar as it suggests the economy still has some capacity to grow at an above-trend pace without generating much inflationary pressure", said Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan in NY. "Aside from the immediate job market impacts, the trade disputes risk raising prices for consumers hurting their purchasing power, which then reinforces the dampening impact on the job market", Hamrick added.

According to the BLS report, titled "The Employment Situation-June 2018", total nonfarm employment increased by 213,000 in June.

Employment gains, job hunter influx clears way for rate hike
Exports declined mostly because of weaker trade on motor vehicles and parts as well as metal ores and non-metallic minerals. There are also growing fears of global disruptions as a trade fight escalates between the US and China.

"I'm really excited to see that the labor force is growing", said Catherine Barrera, chief economist of the online job site ZipRecruiter. That was the first increase in the jobless rate in 10 months.

Major trade partners, including China, Canada, Mexico and the European Union, have retaliated with their own tariffs. The agency's Bureau of Labor Statistics issued its monthly look at the employment situation in the USA, showing a rebound in the legal services sector after more tepid results in May. Over the past year, average monthly payroll gains have hovered around 200,000, and hiring has been running ahead of growth in the labor force.

In spite of the strong job gains and widely voiced complaints from employers about difficulties in finding workers, wage growth does not appear to be accelerating. A July 4 report by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) found that among its 26 member countries, average nominal wage growth has slowed from an annual rate of 4.8 percent before the crash to just 2.1 percent. This was more than the 190,000 forecast by economists. Trump has spoken about slapping tariffs on imported cars, trucks and auto parts, which General Motors has warned could hurt the USA auto industry and drive up vehicle prices.

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Manufacturing added 36,000 jobs, the most since December. Economists say the effects could include companies curtailing both hiring and investment, which would have a cooling effect on the jobs figures in coming months. For the construction sector on its own, the average hourly and weekly gains, as recorded in B-3, were a bit faster, at +2.9% and +3.5% respectively.

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